It remains a confusing time to be a cinephile. Depending on who you talk to, what kind of mood they are in, and even which way the wind is blowing, you get some very different views on the health and potential future of cinema as a medium.
Everything is doomed! Or everything is recovering nicely, post-COVID, on the way to a bumper year. The global box office of 2025 has ended with $33.5 billion. This is up around 12% on 2024. Even when you take out the $2 billion from China and Ne Zha 2, it is still 8% higher.
Analysts are saying that Avengers: Doomsday and Spider-Man: Brand New Day are potential juggernauts for next year.
So what is really going on? Different views can be shaped by three different pieces of news that all paint a variable picture.
DiCaprio
In an interview with The Times of London, Oscar winner, actor and producer Leonardo DiCaprio says he’s concerned about the future, driven by the relationship of the audience with the cinema.
He is also concerned over AI in film, saying the technology is incapable of humanity and therefore can’t be considered authentic art.
“It’s changing at a lightning speed. We’re looking at a huge transition. First, documentaries disappeared from cinemas. Now, dramas only get finite time and people wait to see it on streamers. I don’t know. Do people still have the appetite? Or will cinemas become silos – like jazz bars?
I just hope enough people who are real visionaries get opportunities to do unique things in the future that are seen in the cinema. But that remains to be seen.”
Despite this gloomy outlook, DiCaprio recently helped Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest project reach the highest box office of that director’s career.
Netflix
Meanwhile, an article in Deadline that was widely reported across the internet movie community states that Netflix is pushing for a certain length of cinematic release window, should that deal with Warner Bros. Pictures go through. They say their sources have named a 17-day window as desirable.
Exhibitors disagree vehemently, and 45 days should remain as the standard.
Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos likes the 17-day window. It is not plucked out of the air by Netflix, either. This is the strategy that Universal uses on movies that open low at the box office. They get shunted to PVOD in this time.
Sarandos once called theatrical releases an “outmoded idea” but then also said “we are 100% committed to releasing Warner Bros. films in theaters with industry-standard windows”.
So, also confusing.
Avatar
Meanwhile, the box office juggernaut that is Avatar rolls on, with Avatar: Fire and Ash projected to make at least $1.5 billion in its run. That is way lower than the first two, but still the highest-grossing movie of the year by any measure, and an impressive haul.
The sticking point is the cost. At a rumored $400 million to make, it needs to clear that to turn a profit. So Avatar 4 and 5 remain with a question mark over them.
So is it a sign of some rude health remaining in the box office, or a harbinger of declining returns that are terminal?
The picture remains murky, and up for debate.
