A couple of weeks ago, we reported on the tracking numbers for Masters Of The Universe not being where the studio would have wanted them to be. The numbers were pointing to an opening weekend of around £25 million, which, for a £150 million budget, is nowhere near good enough.
Then came The Mandalorian & Grogu, the small matter of Star Wars returning to the big screen for the first time in going on for a decade. So much was riding on it, and it ended up doing Solo numbers. The $165 million global take sounds impressive, but they are the sort of numbers that killed Star Wars in cinemas for years.
So where, exactly, is Hollywood going to get its summer hit from? Well, it is looking like it sure as shit won’t be from Supergirl. The next major tentpole movie off the rank this summer has some early tracking figures coming in that won’t be pleasing anyone.
BoxOfficeTheory carried the data, and it points to a domestic opening of between $47 million and $65 million. In this market, that’s not a bad opening, but in context that places it among superhero peers like Black Adam and The Marvels, both of which were considered flops.
Compared to last summer’s Superman, which had a $125 million opening and pulled in over $600 million, it’s nowhere. It has a $170 million budget to recoup, slightly cheaper than Superman, which made Warner Bros. decent profits due to cost control, especially around the marketing.
Supergirl launches across a summer period that sees it sandwiched between movies like Toy Story 5 just before it, with Minions & Monsters and live-action Moana just after it.
Therein lies part of Hollywood’s massive problem. Back in the late 90s or early 2000s, a trip to the movies was a cheap activity. A staple for everyone, from dating teenagers to families looking to entertain the kids for a few hours during school vacations.
In this economy, and with prices where they are right now, a trip to the movies starts to resemble luxury expenditure, and whereas you could find most of us in a movie theater every damn weekend in summer seasons a decade or more ago, now everyone is much more selective about what they spend their cash on.
With two kids, and a family trip to the theater knocking on the door of $100 these days if you include tickets, drinks, snacks, and parking, people can’t be going to the movies 5 or 6 times across the summer like they used to.
Against this, movies are costing more and more than ever to make.
The math is no longer mathing. Something will have to give. Spider-Man: Brand New Day will only paper over the cracks.
