A fairly depressing report from Variety (via Dark Horizons) has dropped. The report discusses a new poll by industry analyst Stephen Follows. He polled over 240 US-based film industry executives about a wide range of subjects related to the theatrical experience.
What stood out, among opinions on post-COVID recovery and landscape shifts, was what more than half of them agreed about the movie-theater experience as we know it. In their opinion, it will no longer be a viable business model within the next 20 years.
Among the 55% of them who said this model will be dead, some even thought it would happen as quickly as 5 years.
Interestingly, there is a delta developing depending on the background of the executive questioned. Sales, distribution, and production executives had the worst outlook on the future in general, but exhibition executives – those closest to the cinema – had the highest percentage of opinions that it would all be over within 5 years.
Among those same exhibition executives were responses that confirmed they are still not back to where they were pre-COVID, despite a few notable big hits, and that the shorter theatrical release windows are really hurting them.
81% of those polled wanted 6-week windows minimum, with day-and-date streaming models being highlighted as the most damaging model in the industry for them.
So, there it is. The view from the coalface remains bleak. Are they right? Are we on a one-way trip to cinema oblivion?
